Active Weather Pattern Brings Severe Weather Potential to Several Regions on Sunday
Written by: Candyse Arivett
Meteorologists are closely monitoring an active upper pattern across the contiguous United States. The setup suggests the potential for severe weather across various regions on Sunday. Let's dive into the details:
Midwest and Southeast Regions:
A mid-latitude cyclone is expected to progress southward into the Upper Great Lakes, propelled by a shortwave trough passing through the Mid Mississippi, Ohio, and Tennessee Valleys. By early Monday morning, the shortwave is projected to reach the central/southern Appalachians. The associated surface low is forecasted to be centered near St. Louis, with a cold front extending southwestward across central Missouri and central Oklahoma. This front will advance southeastward throughout the day as the surface low moves northeastward across the Ohio Valley.
Southwest and Southern High Plains:
In the western region, an upper low initially situated over the southern California coast is likely to track northeastward across southern California and southern Nevada. As it does, a shortwave trough will rotate through its western periphery into the Great Basin. Strong mid-level flow associated with this low will spread eastward through the Southwest and southern High Plains.
Expected Impacts:
Mid-MS Valley/Mid-South into the OH/TN Valley and Southeast:
Thunderstorms are expected to be ongoing across the Mid Mississippi Valley early Sunday morning, near the surface low. Throughout the afternoon, storm intensity and coverage are likely to increase as the approaching shortwave trough influences the surface low's movement. Moderate destabilization of the air mass ahead of the front is anticipated, mainly in central Arkansas to western/middle Tennessee. While shear will be modest, it should support a few organized multicell clusters. Steep low-level lapse rates will contribute to the risk of damaging gusts and hail.
Central/Southern High Plains:
Afternoon thunderstorm development is anticipated across the higher terrain of Colorado, which will then move into the adjacent plains. Moderate vertical shear, coupled with the potential for a few supercells, may produce severe weather conditions, including all severe hazards.
Great Basin:
In the Great Basin region, thunderstorm coverage is expected to increase during the afternoon as the approaching shortwave trough triggers ascent. Steep low-level lapse rates and modest mid-level moisture will contribute to the buoyancy of the air mass, potentially leading to stronger downdrafts within this well-mixed environment.
North Texas into the Arklatex:
While the overall risk is conditional, a chance of isolated severe storms exists as the air mass recovers ahead of the approaching front. Though warm and dry mid-levels from preceding convection might limit deep convection, there remains a chance for supercells and the primary threat of large hail if storms do develop.
Residents in these regions are advised to stay informed about the weather conditions and heed any warnings or advisories issued by local authorities. Remember to have a plan in place and stay safe during potentially severe weather events.
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